Translated with AI
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects the economies of Central Asian countries to grow by an average of 6.1% in 2025. The forecast is contained in the macroeconomic report "Regional Economic Prospects" published on Tuesday.
According to the document, growth will be supported by high levels of industrial production, robust domestic demand, investment, rising real wages, and significant remittances. The EBRD estimates that positive momentum will continue in 2026, but growth will slow to 5.2%. Experts cite commodity price volatility, the region's reliance on remittances, and continued close dependence on the Russian and Chinese markets as key risks.
According to the bank, Tajikistan continues to demonstrate strong growth. The country's real GDP increased by 8.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. This growth was driven by positive indicators in sectors such as domestic trade, agriculture, transport, and industry.
The report places particular emphasis on the mining industry, which accounts for a third of total industrial output, and metal ore production nearly doubled during the reporting period. Household consumption also remained strong, supported by a 17.2% increase in real wages and a 64% increase in remittances.
The EBRD also notes Tajikistan's successful cooperation with international financial institutions. Specifically, the World Bank has approved a budget support program, and the International Monetary Fund continues to implement its policy coordination program, which are seen as additional drivers of medium-term growth.
According to EBRD forecasts, Tajikistan's economy will grow by 7.5% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026. Key drivers include high global gold prices, infrastructure investments, and a steady flow of remittances. However, experts warn that a possible decline in remittances could pose a risk to the country's future development.
