Translated with AI
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has presented an updated macroeconomic forecast for the Eurasian Economic Union member states and other member states of the bank, including the Republic of Tajikistan. According to the report, Tajikistan's economy will grow by 8.4% in 2025, which is the highest growth rate in the last two decades, the press service of the CIS Executive Committee reports.
According to EDB analysts, the accelerated GDP growth is due to high domestic demand, favorable foreign trade conditions and rising gold prices. Remittances from labor migrants, which, as before, make up about 45% of the country's total GDP, also continue to make a significant contribution to the development of the economy.
The report emphasizes that Tajikistan's economy will grow by 8.0% in 2026 and by 7.1% in 2027. Despite the optimistic estimates, analysts point out a number of risks that could affect the forecast. These include global tariff tensions, fluctuations in world commodity prices, and a possible decrease in the volume of remittances from migrants, a significant portion of which comes from oil-exporting countries.
In the broader context of the Eurasian region, covering Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the EDB expects aggregate GDP growth to be 2.7% by the end of 2025. In 2024, this figure was 4.5%. The revision of forecasts is explained by external factors, including a slowdown in the global economy and a decline in business activity in the United States and the eurozone.
According to the bank's forecast, global economic growth in 2025 will be 3%, compared to 3.3% a year earlier. In the US, growth rates will slow to 1.4%, in the eurozone – to 0.6%, while China's economy will continue to grow at 5% due to policies stimulating domestic demand.
Since its establishment in 2015, the EAEU has demonstrated sustainable economic development. The combined GDP of the union's countries at the end of 2024 amounted to $2.6 trillion, and mutual trade turnover is approaching $100 billion. The union's share in the global economy has reached 4.2%.
