The Russian Labor Market: Between Deficit and Transformation

According to estimates by the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Gaidar Institute, the country was short of about 4–4.8 million workers in 2023 [1] . More than 90% of companies experienced a personnel shortage in 2024–2025. The shortage reached 1 million employees; staff turnover was 48% against the norm of 30%.

In logistics and warehouses, there is a shortage of 30-50% of personnel; demand for sorters and drivers of categories B , C , E has increased by 200-300%.

The reasons for the shortage are demographic and structural. The aging population and the demographic trough since the 1990s: the share of workers under 35 has decreased by 837,000 people in 2024.

Source: AI generated Mobilization, war and emigration: more than 600,000 men dropped out of the labor force. Many jobs were redistributed to the defense industry, where wages are higher, which exacerbated the labor shortage in civilian industries.

By 2030, a deficit of about 2 million workers is expected [2] . Russia's attractiveness for labor migrants from Tajikistan may decrease due to changes in legislation: on the one hand, they are aimed at protecting the rights of foreign workers, on the other, they increase the financial and administrative burden on migrants.

The streamlining of legislation facilitates the legalization of migrant labor, but at the same time complicates their employment. This particularly affects citizens of Tajikistan, including low-skilled workers. The labor shortage is an acute shortage of skilled labor, in which the demand for workers exceeds supply. It affects both individual industries (IT, medicine, construction) and the entire economy.

More than 4 million vacancies remain unfilled. More than 60% of employers report a labor shortage, especially in industry, construction, transport and agriculture. Migration partially compensates for the deficit, but does not solve the skills problem.

The most acute shortage is felt in Siberia, the Far East and small towns. The most deficient sectors include construction (shortage of workers and engineers), healthcare (especially in rural areas), education (science and mathematics teachers), IT (programmers, analysts, engineers), industry and logistics (fitters, turners, drivers, machine operators).

In 2024, over 1.5 million vacancies were registered with 600 thousand unemployed [3] . There is a shortage of machine operators, welders, fitters and electricians at construction sites in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Far East. There is a severe shortage of personnel at defense industry plants, in the automotive industry and heavy industry.

In the construction industry, about half of the workers are dissatisfied with their wages and working conditions. The shortage of qualified personnel concerns not managers, but concrete workers, masons, welders, foremen – those who are directly involved in construction.

There are 5 CVs per vacancy in the construction sector on hh.ru, while last year there were only 3. Only 26% of workers are satisfied with their salary, 49% rate it as a “C”, and 19% as downright low. Only 31% are satisfied with the social package, 26% understand the company’s development prospects, and 55% are not confident in its future.

Agriculture is experiencing a shortage of milkmaids, cattlemen and seasonal workers. In a number of regions (Kuban, Belgorod Region) up to 30% of vacancies are not filled. In healthcare and education there is an acute shortage of doctors, paramedics and teachers. The situation is especially difficult in rural areas and in the South of Russia.

In Moscow, there are over 350,000 vacancies, a third of which are in construction and housing and utilities. Krasnodar Krai has up to 50,000 vacancies per season. Amur Oblast needs up to 20,000 workers for the construction of the Vostochny Cosmodrome and the Baikal-Amur Mainline. In Belgorod Oblast, 15–20% of vacancies are in the agricultural sector.

In the Volgograd region, the most in-demand professions are: turners, cooks, bakers, doctors, salespeople, janitors. The competition index (hh. index) is less than 2 – this is a pronounced personnel shortage. Novosibirsk factories are in dire need of fitters, cutters, electricians, crane operators, as well as engineers and power engineers.

The deficit may persist until 2030. According to the pessimistic scenario, it will reach 11 million people. This will slow down the growth of GDP and industrial production. In the Chelyabinsk region, factories are short of thousands of workers, in the Sverdlovsk region – 100 thousand, in Yakutia [4] .

Every year, Russia loses 1.5-2 million workers in critical sectors. Without reforms, the labor market will be uneven: a shortage of personnel in some regions will coexist with unemployment in others. Investments in human capital, education reform, modernization of working conditions, and a flexible migration policy are required.

Since 2025, pension indexation for working pensioners has been resumed, and hiring minors has been simplified. But foreign workers remain the main reserve. The patent system has become a fiscal instrument. In 2025, the budget received 72–76 billion rubles from their sale.

Moscow is the largest recipient of patent income. With a monthly payment of 6-8 thousand rubles, migrants become important taxpayers. However, they do not receive full social protection.

Illegal migration remains a problem: tens of thousands of people are deported every year. New restrictions have been introduced, such as reducing the visa-free stay to 90 days per year. More than 100,000 migrants will be deported in 2023–2024.

Migration reforms include digitalization, biometrics, mandatory language and legal exams. Since 2025, the police can deport migrants without trial. Registration of marriages, SIM cards, and entrepreneurship for illegal immigrants are prohibited.

In 2024, about 618 thousand people left Tajikistan, 98% – for Russia (~605 thousand). The total flow of migrants to Russia decreased by 8%. According to the results of the first half of 2025, about 300-350 thousand citizens of Tajikistan left for Russia [5] .

Registration of patents is a stable source of income for budgets. For 2015–2022, Moscow alone received about 145 billion rubles [6] . This system creates financial dependence of regions on migration.

To solve the problem of personnel shortage it is necessary:

– stimulation of labor mobility within the country (subsidies, housing, relocation),

– linking personnel training with economic demands,

– simplification of procedures for the legal recruitment of migrants,

– reducing costs for employers,

– integration of migrants (linguistic and cultural adaptation).

Companies must move from the concept of a “loyal migrant” to a “loyal contract” model – transparent, short-term and mutually beneficial.

– Conclusion of agreements with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan on organized labor migration. Direct hiring through government agencies: migrants go straight to the employer, bypassing the "black market".

– Creation of recruitment centers in the home countries of migrants – with the participation of the Ministry of Labor of the Russian Federation.

It is impossible to completely eliminate illegal migration, but it is necessary to combine control with education. Otherwise, the risk of the formation of ethnic enclaves and social tension increases.

An effective migration policy requires improved legislation, digitalization, employer responsibility and the development of legal employment mechanisms.

The Russian labor market is undergoing an unprecedented transformation and continues to face challenges related to the shortage of personnel in key sectors. In conditions of high competition, the demand for migrant labor is growing. Time will tell how the situation will develop, but we can already expect an intensification of the struggle for personnel in the most in-demand areas.

Traditional employment models are being replaced by flexible ones, and a new reality is emerging in which a shortage of personnel is a strategic threat that requires comprehensive solutions.

[1] Gaidar Institute. Current Trends of the Russian Economy. 2024.

[2] Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences. Report on the state of the Russian labor market, 2024.
[3] Rosstat. Key indicators of the labor market, 2024–2025.
[4] URA.RU news agencyChelyabinsk factories cannot find thousands of workers. 0606.25
[5] Sputnik News Agency. It has become known how many Tajiks entered Russia in 2024. 09. 06.25.
[6] See: On income from work patents for migrants. – Official website of the Mayor of Moscow and the Government of Moscow. – URL: https://www.mos.ru/news/item/122256073/ (date accessed: 22.07.2025).