Translated with AI
Approximately 40% of Russia's oil export capacity, equivalent to approximately 2 million barrels per day, has been temporarily disabled as a result of Ukrainian drone attacks and the detention of "shadow fleet" tankers, Reuters reported, citing its own calculations based on market data.
According to the agency, this is the most serious disruption to oil supplies in Russia's modern history. This occurred against the backdrop of oil prices rising above $100 per barrel, triggered by the US and Israeli war against Iran.
It is noted that following the attacks by Ukrainian drones in March 2026 on export ports in the Baltic Sea, including Primorsk and Ust-Luga, oil shipments were interrupted.
In Novorossiysk, Russia's export port on the Black Sea, oil shipments are below planned levels.
An additional impact was caused by damage to the Druzhba oil pipeline, transit through which was interrupted at the end of January after damage occurred as a result of Russian strikes in Ukraine.
As oil traders told Reuters, the increasing detention of Russian "shadow fleet" tankers by European countries has also disrupted the supply of approximately 300,000 barrels of oil from Murmansk.
At the same time, according to the agency's estimates, Russia continues to supply China with approximately 1.9 million barrels per day of oil and Belarus with approximately 300,000 barrels per day without interruption. Shipments from the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 projects also continue at approximately 250,000 barrels per day.
Earlier, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 Brent crude price forecast from $77 to $85 per barrel, calling the current situation the largest supply shock on the global oil market.
Analysts' calculations are based on a scenario in which shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain at 5% of normal volume for six weeks, after which they would take another month to recover. In this case, total supply losses could exceed 800 million barrels.
The bank also warns that Middle East production losses could rise from 11 million to 17 million barrels per day if the recovery from the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is gradual over four weeks.
