Translated with AI
Four years after the outbreak of full-scale war, the total cost of Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction over the next decade is estimated at nearly $588 billion (over €500 billion). This figure is contained in an updated joint damage and needs assessment prepared by the Ukrainian government, the World Bank, the European Commission, and the United Nations. It is noted that this amount is almost three times the country's projected nominal gross domestic product for 2025.
The report covers the period from February 2022 to December 2025—almost four years of war. According to the data presented, direct damage has already exceeded $195 billion (€166 billion), compared to $176 billion a year earlier. The housing, transportation, and energy infrastructure sectors have been most severely affected, particularly in frontline regions and large cities.
The Ukrainian authorities, with the support of international partners, are already planning priority recovery projects for 2026. These include public investments and key assistance programs, including the restoration of damaged housing, demining, and economic support, totaling over $15 billion. Furthermore, since February 2022, at least $20 billion has already been allocated for emergency repairs to damaged facilities and the implementation of recovery programs for projects in housing, energy, education, transportation, and other vital services.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko noted that despite widespread destruction and ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and residential buildings, the country is demonstrating resilience. According to her, the total cost of Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction is now estimated at nearly $588 billion over the next decade, which is almost three times the projected nominal GDP for 2025. She emphasized that businesses continue to operate, and the country retains the capacity for rapid recovery and further development. The Prime Minister expressed gratitude to the World Bank, the European Union, and the UN for supporting Ukraine's efforts, noting that this assistance allows for the prompt repair of critical infrastructure and the continuation of systemic recovery, with a particular focus on energy and housing.
The report emphasizes that energy infrastructure continues to be subject to intense attacks. The number of damaged or destroyed facilities has increased by approximately 21 percent compared to the previous estimate. In the transport sector, needs have increased by approximately 24 percent due to attacks on rail infrastructure and ports in 2025. By the end of 2025, 14 percent of the country's housing stock has been damaged or destroyed, affecting more than three million households.
World Bank Managing Director for Operations Anna Bjerde stated that despite the widespread destruction, the country is demonstrating exceptional resilience and resolve. She added that the World Bank Group remains committed to supporting Ukraine's recovery, promoting job creation, new opportunities, and building a resilient, modern, and competitive economy.
The report's authors note the important role of the private sector in the recovery process. They also emphasize the need for further reforms to attract investment, including improving the business climate, expanding access to finance, and adapting the economy to the European Union's environmental and digital standards.
European Union Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos stated that the war continues to have a devastating impact on Ukraine. She stated that the EU intends to continue playing a key role in supporting the country's recovery by mobilizing private investment through the Investment Framework for Ukraine and promoting reforms under the Ukraine Action Plan, which should attract investment and bring the country closer to EU membership.
According to estimates, the largest long-term costs are associated with the transportation sector—over $96 billion. These are followed by energy (almost $91 billion), housing (almost $90 billion), trade and industry (over $63 billion), and agriculture (over $55 billion). Nearly $28 billion will be needed for demining and rubble removal.
UN Regional Coordinator Matthias Schmale emphasized that recovery efforts must be people-centered and community-focused. He emphasized that Ukraine's greatest resource remains its population. The return of refugees, the reintegration of veterans, and women's participation in the labor market will play as important a role in economic recovery as investment and infrastructure rehabilitation.
The document also notes that the country's future economic strategy, entitled "Economy of Ukraine's Future," aims to ensure macro-financial stability, implement governance reforms, develop the private sector, rebuild infrastructure, and invest in human capital. Implementation of this strategy is expected to strengthen investor confidence and accelerate Ukraine's rapprochement with the European Union.
