Translated with AI
The master, setting out on a journey, orders the young servant to be hanged. The surprised confidants ask: for what offense?
The owner, looking at the young man with warmth, replies: – He is kind, modest and reliable in dealing with. But I am afraid that my journey will be delayed, and he may become close to my young wife… It is better to prevent trouble than to deal with its consequences later.
Israel's recent night strike on Iran, carried out with the direct consent and at the behest of the United States, is remarkably reminiscent of this Eastern parable. It has not yet been proven that Iran possesses nuclear weapons, but punishing it in advance, according to the logic of some powers, may be advantageous. After all, you never know…
Unfortunately, the modern world has once again fallen into the clutches of the desire for hegemony. Leaders of countries that call themselves democratic are increasingly trying to maintain global influence at any cost. This has led to a new round of acute conflicts, the hotbeds of which flare up in one or another point on the planet. Behind the loud slogans of humanism and noble goals lies undisguised aggression, and as always, ordinary people suffer from it.
The world has once again become an arena of clashes and confrontations, where the true goal is not peace at all, but the retention of influence and power.
It is probably in this context that yesterday's Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran should be viewed. It is not so much a question of a nuclear threat as another chapter in the struggle for geopolitical dominance.
The current state of the United States is a matter of grave concern. Donald Trump's promises during the previous presidential campaign gave many Americans hope for change. However, by and large, these promises have remained unfulfilled. Disappointment in the brave president has undermined trust in the government, and his policies, both domestic and foreign, have caused a storm of criticism.
Currently, large-scale protests against Trump's anti-immigration policies are taking place in more than 17 US states. This internal tension is forcing him and the Republican Party to look for ways to distract public attention. One such way is to create the image of an external enemy – a classic technique for distracting people's attention from domestic problems.
The continuation of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, despite Donald Trump's loud statements, does not promise him political dividends – after all, it was he who promised to end this war in 24 hours. If the fighting only escalates, this will call into question not only his promises, but also his political authority. At the same time, we should not forget that Russia is not a power that can be easily brought to its knees. Possessing nuclear potential and strategic training, it will not give in without resistance – the entire West has already felt this.
The US, in turn, is not yet ready to open a new front against China in East Asia. Not only are they not ready, but they are also not sure of the success of such an undertaking. That is why the choice fell on Iran, the only country in the region that Washington considers vulnerable and susceptible to pressure. Using Israel as an executor, Washington can provoke a conflict with Iran without interfering directly, but at the same time achieving its own goals. In a word, a new proxy war…
For the current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, such an escalation is a chance for political salvation. After all, he is under investigation for war crimes by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, and any peace settlement in the region threatens him with collapse on the domestic and international arena. For this reason, Netanyahu is deliberately leading Israel down a path of constant tension with its neighbors, seeking to strengthen his personal power at any cost.
Netanyahu's policy resembles the strategy of the leaders of the European Union, who, by fueling the conflict in Ukraine, also hope to preserve their shaky positions. For them, ending the war could mean the end of politics.
The Muslim countries of the region – Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Jordan and others – remain under the strong influence of the United States and are unlikely to dare to act against the will of Washington. Any attempt at an independent policy could result in economic and diplomatic pressure from the West. At the same time, the new outbreak of conflict has already raised oil prices on the world market – which, of course, plays into the hands of the Gulf countries, which live off oil exports.
The outcome of this tense situation may become clear in the coming days. If Iran responds harshly, swiftly, and tangibly to the Israeli strike, there is still a chance to stop Israel from further aggressive actions. However, if Tehran’s response is delayed or limited to only harsh statements, Israel will certainly seize the moment to launch new strikes against Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, as well as key commanders of its armed forces.
Of course, the recent Israeli attack has raised a lot of questions about Iran's defense capabilities.
How is it possible that dozens of Israeli warplanes entered Iranian airspace with impunity and suffered no losses? Why did the Islamic Republic's air defense system, which has been touted for years as "powerful and ready to repel any aggression," fail to effectively intercept enemy missiles? And the most important question: is Iran capable, from a technical and tactical point of view, of giving a worthy response to Israel?
Israel today has a clear military advantage – thanks to direct access to American military technology, as well as overt and covert support from European states. While Iran, in fact, relies only on an alliance with a few Shiite semi-official groups – such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Yemeni Houthis, who themselves are under extreme pressure, both military and economic.
Russia, China, Türkiye and a number of Arab countries, despite the rhetoric, are limiting themselves to verbal support, without moving on to real actions.
Under these circumstances, Iran has no choice but to mobilize all available military, technical, and intelligence resources to defend its national sovereignty and secure its borders. After the latest blow, there is no longer any talk of negotiations or diplomacy, at least in the short term. The Islamic Republic faces a stark dilemma: either take decisive countermeasures and demonstrate its capacity for real resistance, or risk facing a major strategic and political defeat.
Otherwise, the wave of mass protests against Israel in various countries of the region and the world that will inevitably break out against the backdrop of this conflict will prove to be an empty echo if it is not followed by concrete action. History has proven many times: in the equation of forces, the determining factor is always action and power, not slogans and emotions.
Author: Bakhtiyor Khamdamov journalist
