Translated with AI
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published a macroeconomic forecast for seven of its member states. The analytical report presents an analysis of the EDB member states' economic development through 2025, as well as a forecast of key macroeconomic indicators for 2026–2028.
The EDB report assesses the current situation in the global and Eurasian economies. According to bank analysts' forecasts, the global economy is maintaining moderate growth rates and is gradually adapting to new trade barriers. However, growth in developed economies remains weak, while developing economies with large domestic markets continue to demonstrate increased economic activity.
The economy in the EDB region is expected to continue its robust growth, expanding by 2.3% by 2026. Analysts estimate that the projected dynamics of the global economy and commodity markets will not pose significant obstacles to economic growth in the Eurasian region, but will not become its key driver. Growth rates in most countries in the region will remain elevated due to strong investment activity.
Inflation in the region's countries will gradually decline toward target levels. Consumer price growth is forecast to slow to 6.3% in 2026 from 6.9% in 2025, barring additional external shocks, supported by the prudent monetary policy of regulators in EDB member states.
According to EDB analysts, Tajikistan's economy will maintain high gross domestic product growth rates in 2026, at approximately 8.1%. The main drivers of growth will be the expansion of production capacity in the energy and manufacturing sectors, as well as increased prices for gold and non-ferrous metals.
Inflation in the republic is expected to rise to 4.5% year-on-year by the end of 2026 and remain within the target range of 5±2%. The exchange rate of the national currency, the somoni, will remain stable due to export growth and rising remittances from migrant workers. The average somoni exchange rate in 2026 is projected to be approximately 9.8 somoni per US dollar.
