Translated with AI
According to IBC Global Central Asia, by mid-2025, Tajikistan remains one of the least developed markets in Central Asia in terms of quality warehouse space. According to analysts, the country has only 10-15 thousand square meters of Class B warehouses, which is 16 and 85 times less than in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, respectively. At the same time, all existing facilities are fully occupied, and no new ones have been commissioned in recent years.
Nevertheless, there have been positive shifts in the market. The construction of three large logistics complexes with a total area of over 50,000 square meters has been announced. They include modern multi-temperature and refrigerated warehouses — infrastructure that was previously virtually absent in the country. Key projects are a logistics center in Khujand, a warehouse park with an area of 23,000 square meters in Dushanbe, and a private multi-temperature complex near the Khujand airport. All of them have already decided on locations and are in the negotiation stage with potential anchor tenants.
In addition to economic factors, natural and land restrictions hinder the development of the warehouse segment. More than 90% of Tajikistan's territory is mountainous. Flat areas are mainly used in agriculture, which significantly limits the available areas for commercial construction. Finding a suitable site can take months. As Stanislav Akhmedzyanov, Managing Partner of IBC Global, notes, the country has an extremely limited number of high-quality land plots of 4-6 hectares — no more than two dozen. At the same time, many of them are irrigated lands, which requires separate approval from government agencies.
Land allocation for the construction of warehouse facilities requires approval at the highest level due to the strategic value of flat and irrigated areas. The development of the logistics market is largely under the influence of agricultural exporters, who are experiencing a shortage of refrigeration capacity and an outdated vehicle fleet. The average age of trucks in the country exceeds 30 years, and specialized transport (refrigerated trucks) is virtually nonexistent.
Such restrictions make it difficult for the country to integrate into logistics and weaken its competitive position. With a population of 12.4% of the total number of Central Asians (with a predominance of young and working-age population – the average age is below 23 years), Tajikistan's share in the regional GDP is only 2.8%. Cargo turnover with the European Union remains at 0.3% of the total volume of Central Asia, with Russia and China – 1.1%. More pronounced participation is observed in trade with southern neighbors: the share of cargo exchange with India is 3.0%, with Iran – 5.3%, with Pakistan – 22.8%, which is the second result in the region after Uzbekistan.
To overcome geographical restrictions, the authorities of the republic are taking steps to integrate into the international logistics infrastructure. In particular, it is planned to launch a Tajik warehouse terminal in the port of Chabahar (Iran). This project is included in the interstate cooperation program approved in early 2025. If the project is implemented, Tajikistan will gain access to the multimodal transport corridor "China – Tajikistan – Uzbekistan – Turkmenistan – Iran – Turkey – Europe". Also, according to a bilateral memorandum signed in the summer of 2024, Tajik carriers will be able to take advantage of preferential conditions in the international logistics center of Jinlida in western China.
Another problem is the limited domestic sources of funding needed to develop infrastructure. In support of agrologistics, the World Bank has allocated $5 million for the construction of a center in the Sogd FEZ and the formation of a network in five regions of the country. In parallel, negotiations are underway with the Islamic Development Bank and measures are being implemented to accelerate integration into international logistics chains.
Investors' interest is stimulated by attractive conditions: the projected rental rate for Class A warehouses may reach $145 per sq. m per year – a record figure for Central Asia, exceeding even the level of Kazakhstan. This opens up prospects for attracting foreign investment and launching new logistics projects. At the same time, experts emphasize that sustainable growth will require not only the implementation of pilot cases, but also the acceleration of institutional reforms in the field of warehouse and transport infrastructure.
