Translated with AI
Central Asia is experiencing profound demographic changes that will shape the region's economic and social future in the coming decades. According to the regional report "Generation 2050 in Central Asia," prepared with the support of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), more than half the population of five countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—is now under 30 years of age. This was reported by the UN press service.
This creates a unique opportunity to reap a "demographic dividend": an increase in the share of the working-age population could lead to accelerated economic growth. However, this opportunity can only be realized through significant investment in human capital.
A young region in a rapidly aging world
Against the backdrop of global population aging, Central Asia remains one of the youngest regions in Eurasia. In Tajikistan, the median age is only 22, in Kyrgyzstan it is 25, and in Uzbekistan it is 27. Even by 2050, these figures will remain relatively low, increasing the window of opportunity for economic growth.
The region's population continues to grow: from 56 million in 2000, it has increased to over 84 million by 2025 and will reach nearly 112 million by mid-century. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are experiencing particularly rapid population growth: the former will add almost 5 million people by 2050, while the latter will add over 15 million. The number of women of reproductive age is also increasing, maintaining stable birth rates despite their gradual decline.
Investments in human capital
The report calls for investment in education, healthcare, and skills development for the younger generation. This is particularly important in Central Asia, as countries in the region still struggle with human capital.
According to the World Bank, children born in the region today will only realize 50-60 percent of their productive potential due to limited access to quality education, health care, and social protection.
If investment in children and youth remains at the current level, the region risks facing rising unemployment, increasing inequality, and a loss of economic potential, the report's authors warn.
A critical period
Today, there are approximately 60 dependents for every 100 working-age people in Central Asia—a historically low figure that will begin to rise after 2040 due to population aging. This means that the next 10–15 years are critical: without modernizing the education, healthcare, and social protection systems now, economic growth will be limited for decades to come.
Migration poses particular challenges. Millions of residents of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan work abroad, and their children grow up separated from their parents, which impacts their emotional well-being, academic performance, and social adaptation. In the coming years, many migrants will return home at retirement age, increasing the burden on social services.
Urban Future: Opportunity or Risk?
By mid-century, 60.5 percent of the region's population will live in cities. However, infrastructure development—water supply, sanitation, transportation, and healthcare—has not yet kept pace with urban growth. This is particularly acute in the rapidly growing districts of Tashkent, Dushanbe, and Bishkek.
The climate factor is also exacerbating the situation: droughts, melting glaciers, and water shortages are already leading to population displacement and increased pressure on urban areas. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are also increasingly experiencing heatwaves, which threaten health and the economy.
Investing for the Future
Experts emphasize that two-thirds of future economic growth will come from investments in human capital. This means:
– access to quality education from an early age;
– providing children and adolescents with modern medicine and healthy nutrition;
– social protection systems that support families;
– employment and training programs for young people, including girls and young women;
– expanding access to water, sanitation and a safe urban environment.
If these measures are implemented, Central Asia will be able to capitalize on its greatest asset: a young, energetic, and numerous generation that will shape the region in 2050.
