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Global temperatures are projected to remain at or near record levels for the next five years, increasing climate risks and having negative consequences for society, the economy and development, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN press service reports.
The global average annual surface temperature for each year from 2025 to 2029 will be 1.2 to 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, i.e. in 1850–1900.
There is also an 80 percent chance that at least one year during this period will be warmer than the warmest year on record, 2024.
The forecast shows a 70 percent chance that average warming over five years will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (the threshold set by the Paris climate agreement), compared with a 47 percent chance for 2024-28 in the previous report.
Every additional fraction of a degree of warming leads to more intense heat waves, extreme precipitation, severe drought, melting glaciers, warming oceans and rising sea levels.
The Arctic is predicted to warm more than 3.5 times faster than the global average over the next five extended winters (November to March). Sea ice forecasts for March 2025–2029 suggest further ice loss in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas.
We just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, there is no respite in sight for the coming years, according to the WMO report.
“We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, the WMO report shows no respite in sight for the coming years, meaning the negative impacts on our economies, daily lives, ecosystems and the planet will continue to mount,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Co Barrett.
“Continuous climate monitoring and forecasting are needed to provide decision makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,” she said.
The 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold (and a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius) is set out in the Paris climate agreement. It refers to long-term warming, measured in terms of global temperatures, typically over 20 years. Temporary exceedances of such levels are expected to become increasingly common. The latest projections suggest an average warming of 1.44 degrees Celsius over the 20-year period from 2015 to 2034.
This year, the UN climate change conference COP30 in Belém, Brazil, will consider updated climate action plans from countries, known as nationally determined contributions. They are critical to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
