Translated with AI
Eurasian Development Bank experts predict that Tajikistan's economic growth will continue at a high rate in early 2026. According to the EDB's latest macroeconomic report, the country's economy will demonstrate stable positive growth rates in 2026.
Industrial production in January increased by 17.4% compared to the same period last year. In 2025, this figure stood at 22.1%.
The bank listed the main factors driving the growth. The most important were a 9.6% increase in mineral extraction and a 33.8% increase in the manufacturing industry.
Economic momentum is supported by strong consumer, investment, and foreign demand. Retail sales increased by 25.5% compared to last year, investment by 39.3%, and export revenue by 53%.
The bank forecasts that gross domestic product growth rates will reach 8.1% by the end of 2026.
Earlier, S&P Ratings affirmed Tajikistan's credit rating at "B," improving the outlook from "stable" to "positive." The agency noted that despite recent improvements, the country's economy remains vulnerable due to its high dependence on remittances, which account for up to 60% of GDP, and a deep deficit in foreign trade in goods.
At the same time, analysts estimate that the country's GDP growth rate will decline in the future. After 8.4% in 2025, the economy will slow to 7.1% in 2026, and then decline to 5.5% in 2027–2028.
