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The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has prepared a forecast of key macroeconomic indicators for the member states of the financial organization, which include four Central Asian republics – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, as well as Armenia, Belarus and Russia. In particular, analysts have published data on the growth of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and changes in the exchange rate of the national currency, according to a report posted on the bank's website, Fergana.ru reports.
EDB experts believe that high economic activity will be observed in all of the above-mentioned countries by the end of this year.
Accordingly, GDP growth is expected: in Armenia – by 5.5%; in Belarus – by 3.0%; in Kazakhstan – by 5.5%; in Kyrgyzstan – by 10.3%; in Russia – by 2.0%; in Tajikistan – by 8.4%; in Uzbekistan – by 6.5%.
The bank provided a more detailed forecast for individual countries, including the republics of the Central Asian region.
Thus, Kazakhstan is expected to accelerate economic growth from 4.8% last year to 5.5% this year. Large-scale measures to support investment projects will more than offset the negative effects of external shocks, analysts believe. In addition, the positive dynamics will be supported by a stimulating budget policy, increased oil production, and government initiatives aimed at developing regions and infrastructure. At the same time, increased consumer demand and rising utility rates will accelerate inflation to 11.9%. The national currency exchange rate will average 513 tenge per $1 in 2025.
Kyrgyzstan's GDP growth will be affected by rising gold prices, increased household consumption and strong investment demand. Inflation will be 7.3%, which is roughly in line with the government's target. The som exchange rate will remain unchanged at an average of 87.5 soms per $1. This will be facilitated by increased export revenues amid favorable conditions on the global precious metals market, as well as a decrease in imports.
In Tajikistan, high GDP growth, which may reach a record level over the past 20 years, is due to increased domestic demand and a favorable situation in foreign trade for the republic. Here, first of all, the cost of gold is taken into account. Inflation will not exceed 3.3% and will remain within the target range. The national currency exchange rate will average 11.1 somoni per $1 for the year.
Since Uzbekistan became a member of the EDB only this year, the forecast for this country is made for the first time. Confident GDP growth is expected in the context of increasing incomes of the population and investment activity. Previously adopted monetary policy measures will help slow inflation to 8.1%. The average exchange rate of the sum in 2025 will be about 13,200 per $1. The national currency will be supported by an increase in the volume of money transfers and a steady growth in exports.
EDB experts also shared their vision of key trends in the world. According to their estimates, global economic growth will slow down from 3.3% to 3% by the end of this year. At the same time, the increase in GDP in the countries of the bank's region of operations will be 2.7%.
The Eurasian Development Bank is a multilateral bank that has been investing in the Eurasian region for 19 years. By 2025, the EDB portfolio includes 305 projects worth $16.5 billion. The main share is made up of initiatives in the areas of transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, industry and mechanical engineering.
