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Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have become the leaders in economic growth in Central Asia, according to the quarterly regional economic review of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development, NIAT Khovar reports.
As noted in the review, at the beginning of 2025, the economies of the countries of the region demonstrate multidirectional dynamics, caused by both internal factors and external conditions. The fastest growth in the first quarter of 2025 was shown by Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, where GDP increased by 13.1% and 8.2% y/y, respectively.
This was supported by activity in the construction sector, robust domestic demand and an inflow of remittances from migrant workers. At the same time, the Russian economy entered a cooling phase: GDP growth slowed to 1.4% y/y, and industrial production contracted. Economic activity in Kazakhstan remains relatively stable (GDP +5.6% y/y), although quarterly dynamics indicate a slowdown after a sharp rise in Q4 2024.
Foreign trade trends are mixed. The balance improved in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan due to a decrease in imports.
At the same time, the economies of Central Asia are likely to maintain higher growth rates (5–7%).
Inflation will gradually decline, but will remain above target levels in most countries. Key risks include dependence on commodity markets, declining investment activity, inflationary pressure from rising wages and tariffs, and overheating economies fueled by lending and fiscal stimulus.
The full version of the Regional Economic Review "Summer 2025" can be found on the EFSR website.
