Translated with AI
Every fourth job in the world will be affected by generative artificial intelligence. These are the findings of a new joint study by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and the National Research Institute of Poland (NASK). At the same time, experts emphasize that the most likely result of the use of AI will be the transformation of work, rather than the complete replacement of humans by computers, the UN press service reports.
A report by the two organizations, published May 20, quantifies the “impact index” of AI across different occupations and provides the most detailed global assessment to date of how AI could change the world of work by transforming some 30,000 job tasks.
“We went beyond theory to create a tool based on real workplace data. By combining human expertise, expert analysis and generative AI models, we have created a replicable method that will help countries assess risks and respond effectively,” said Pawel Gmyrek, a senior researcher at the ILO and lead author of the study.
What professions are at risk? According to the report, occupations could be grouped according to their level of impact from generative AI, which would help policymakers distinguish between jobs at high risk of being fully automated and those that are more likely to evolve through task transformation.
Around 25 percent of jobs globally are potentially affected by AI, with that number rising to 34 percent in developed countries. Women, however, are significantly more likely to see their jobs changed by AI. In developed countries, jobs at highest risk of automation account for 9.6 percent of women’s employment, compared to 3.5 percent of men’s jobs.
Office work is most impacted by AI technologies due to the theoretical ability of generative AI to automate many of the tasks performed there. However, the expanding capabilities of AI are also spreading to a range of cognitive professions related to media, software, and finance.
However, the range of professions that can be fully automated remains limited, as many tasks, although performed more efficiently with the help of AI, still require human intervention.
How to Prepare for Change "This index helps identify where generative AI is likely to have the greatest impact so that countries can better prepare and protect workers. Our next step is to apply this new index to detailed labor force data in Poland," said Marek Troszynski, a senior expert at NASK and one of the report's co-authors.
Experts call on governments, trade unions and other organisations to engage in social dialogue and formulate inclusive strategies that can improve productivity, quality of work and preserve jobs.
“It’s easy to get lost in the noise around AI. We need clarity and context,” said Janine Berg, a senior economist at the ILO, adding that the organization will support countries in preparing labor markets for a fairer digital future.
The report is the first in a series of ILO-NASK publications on generative AI. Future reports will examine its impact on national labour markets and provide recommendations on how to respond to AI adoption, particularly in emerging and developing economies.
