Translated with AI
Over almost 35 years, there have been enormous changes in the relations between Uzbekistan and the Central Asian countries with China. As noted in January 2022 at the Central Asia-China virtual summit, since 1992, trade turnover and investment between China and the countries of the region have increased almost 100 times. Today, China is the largest trade and economic partner of the Central Asian countries and a key participant in international relations in the region.
Over the past 10 years or so, Beijing has established strategic partnerships with all countries in the region, allowing the Chinese side to actively develop cooperation with countries in the region on regional and international issues.
1. Uzbekistan continues to strengthen relations with China in all areas, in which the diplomacy of heads of state plays a key role. Thanks to this, Tashkent and Beijing, in a matter of years after establishing a “strategic partnership” in 2012, moved to a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2016 and to an all-weather strategic partnership in 2024.
The active development of political dialogue was facilitated by the high dynamics of contacts at the highest level. Since 2013, the Chairman of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping has visited Uzbekistan three times. Since 2017, the President of Uzbekistan Sh.M. Mirziyoyev has made three state and four working visits to China to participate in international forums. Meetings of heads of state are held regularly on the sidelines of summits of international organizations.
Dynamic trade and economic cooperation plays a key role in the development of relations. In 2024, bilateral trade turnover exceeded $13 billion, and in the coming years, the parties intend to increase it to $20 billion. The total volume of Chinese investments in 2017-2024 amounted to
$17.6 billion
The establishment of a regional office of the Export-Import Bank of China in Tashkent in November 2024 opens up good prospects for deepening mutually beneficial cooperation and implementing important investment projects.
An indicator of the high level of interaction with China and other Asian and European partners was the holding of the 9th meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in Samarkand in September 2024.
2. On this solid foundation, our interaction with China in the new format "Central Asia – China" has been actively developing since 2020. Cooperation between the countries of the region and China has acquired new dynamics in recent years. The first summit of heads of state in this format, held in May 2023 in Xi'an, emphasized the transition from situational interaction to the development of an institutional platform with regular summits of the leaders of 6 countries, with coordination mechanisms in key areas and a formalized agenda for cooperation.
In addition to summits and meetings of heads of foreign ministries, the format structure includes mechanisms for meetings of ministers of economy and trade, transport, agriculture, customs, as well as a forum of political parties. The Central Asian-Chinese Business Council has been established. A joint working group on agricultural trade and economic cooperation has been created.
The political basis for the development of the format was the Xi'an Declaration, adopted by the leaders of the countries at the first summit, which defined the basic principles and directions for the development of six-party cooperation.
It is especially important to note that in this final document of the Xi'an Summit, the Chinese side supported the processes of developing regional cooperation in Central Asia, noting the key role of the Consultative Meetings of the Heads of State of Central Asia as a “key factor in ensuring security, stability and sustainable development of the region.”
The development of mechanisms of six-party cooperation is facilitated by the emerging contractual framework of six-party interaction. Memorandums on strengthening trade and economic cooperation and on cooperation in the field of digital trade have been signed. It is also planned to create cooperation platforms on emergency situations, education, healthcare and energy.
The drivers of interaction in the humanitarian sphere will be the alliance of national administrative academies, forums for cooperation between regions, analytical centers, news agencies, etc.
An important step in the institutionalization of cooperation was the opening of the Secretariat of the Central Asian-China format (March 2024, Xi'an), designed to facilitate the implementation of agreements and decisions of the heads of state. The very fact of its establishment not in Beijing, but in Xi'an, the starting point of the Silk Road, symbolizes China's desire for rapprochement with Central Asia.
3. The following factors will influence the formation of a strategic architecture for cooperation between the region and China on this basis.
Firstly, a sustainable process of regional consolidation, convergence of interests of the Central Asian countries, and their active interaction with leading external partners.
The development of regional cooperation is becoming a decisive factor in the transformation of Central Asia into a stable, economically and infrastructurally interconnected region with a dynamically growing modern economy, effectively integrated into global supply chains.
In the years since the launch of the Consultative Meetings, real results have been achieved both in the formation of regional cooperation mechanisms and in the practical interaction of countries in trade, investment, transport, logistics and other areas.
Thus, in 2018-2023, intraregional trade grew by 80%, amounting to $11 billion. Although in 2022 it was estimated at only 9%, noticeable progress was achieved in developing the soft infrastructure of regional trade. The average level of trade facilitation in the states of the region in 2023 increased by 29 points to 67% compared to 38% in 2017.
In September this year, the 7th Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of the region will be held in Tashkent. Uzbekistan, as the chair of this mechanism, sets itself the task of further expanding cooperation ties. This is, first of all, strengthening the institutional potential of the Consultative Meetings, developing the main institutions of regional cooperation; further deepening economic cooperation; ensuring stability and sustainable development of the region, as well as promoting Central Asia as a single socio-cultural space.
The most important feature of this process is the open nature of Central Asian regionalism, the desire of the countries of the region for broad international interconnectedness, including within the framework of the dialogue platforms "Central Asia Plus". In early April, the first CA-EU summit was successfully held in Samarkand. The CA-Italy summit was held in Astana just a few days ago. Preparations for the second CA-China summit in the middle of this month are entering the home stretch.
Secondly, one of the key drivers of Central Asian-Chinese cooperation in the regional format is the continuing rise of China as one of the poles of the global economy, the center of gravity of which is increasingly shifting to Asia.
China is not only the world's second largest economy, but also the world's largest trading nation for 8 years in a row, with gross foreign trade of $6 trillion last year. China's trade with the EU was over €730 billion. In 2024, China shipped €517.8 billion worth of goods to Europe and imported €213.3 billion. Trade with the Middle East was $400 billion, with India – almost $130 billion.
Although sea transport previously accounted for about 90% of these volumes, in recent years the prospects for rail transport between China and Europe through our region have been assessed quite positively, especially in the context of improving the continent’s transport and logistics infrastructure.
Industry experts predict that rail logistics will continue to grow due to increasing demand for faster and safer deliveries than ocean freight, lower environmental costs and competitive pricing. As hard and soft infrastructure improves, “rail transport will play a key role in global trade, providing more reliable and sustainable freight options for businesses.”
The expansion of Central Asia's transit potential will undoubtedly be facilitated by the launch last year of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project, which will increase the load on the Trans-Caspian route and become a key transport artery of the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor.
At the same time, our region is important for China not only as a transit corridor, but also as a growing market for goods and investments. Last year, the volume of trade between China and Central Asian countries amounted to $94.8 billion, in the coming years it will exceed $100 billion. Direct investments amounted to more than $15 billion, construction contacts of Chinese companies – $10 billion.
Plans for the development of transport infrastructure, industrialization, digitalization and climate adaptation in Central Asian countries mean that the volume of equipment imports and investments from China will continue to grow.
Most likely, all this will contribute to the further development of institutional mechanisms for practical cooperation and the CA-China format in general.
Thirdly, the grandiose transformation processes in international relations and the global economy will have a huge impact on the development of the strategic architecture of cooperation between the region and China.
These changes have become one of the important factors in accelerating the internationalization of Central Asia, exerting a further stimulating influence on the cooperation of our countries with the PRC.
From a security perspective, this could stimulate increased cooperation in the fight against the “three evil forces” – terrorism, radicalization and separatism. Ensuring long-term stability in Afghanistan remains an important common priority. More pressing are the issues of countering threats emanating from conflict zones in the Middle East, including Syria.
The ongoing restructuring of the global trade architecture is becoming a source of problems and at the same time new opportunities. Central Asia is already feeling the related increase in attention of many external partners to the region and its growing market potential. This has probably become one of the factors in the increase in the Central Asia Plus formats, their transition from the ministerial to the highest level.
At the same time, soberly assessing the situation, it should be emphasized that our external partners are showing even greater interest in the possibilities of improving transport and broader economic interconnectivity with the countries of Eurasia, East and South Asia.
Thus, Russia is actively turning towards South Asia, which is useful for the implementation of our initiative to develop the interconnectivity of Central and South Asia. Our Arab partners believe that the development of interconnectivity between the countries of the Central Asian region and the Gulf should be considered in a broader context, including the access of West Asian states to the entire vast space of Eurasia, including Russia and China. Mongolia is also interested in developing interconnectivity with our region, including taking into account plans to export its halal products to the countries of the Arab-Muslim world.
In this context, while developing cooperation with China in the Central Asian-PRC format, it may be useful to study the possibilities of implementing joint programs and projects within the framework of our cooperation in other international organizations of which the countries of the region and China are members. Such as the SCO, the Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC), BRICS+, etc.
In addition, trilateral cooperation platforms with the participation of other partners in the region in the Central Asia Plus formats may be promising. The first ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council-China summit was recently held in Malaysia. Given the coincidence of interests of Arab and Chinese companies in the development of green energy in our region, at a minimum, we can think about trilateral business and expert events in the Central Asia-GCC-China format to discuss the prospects for expanding cooperation to other sectors.
In general, the enormous potential for mutually beneficial cooperation between Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries with China in a wide range of areas is obvious. The implementation of joint bilateral and regional projects and programs with Chinese partners will contribute to the advancement of economic modernization of countries and integration processes in our region.
International Institute of Central Asia
