Translated with AI
Vladimir Putin is seeking to maintain his image as the winner, despite growing signs of Russia’s systemic defeat in the war against Ukraine. As Foreign Policy notes, the Kremlin has so far successfully avoided outward signs of capitulation, but the reality on the battlefield, in the economy, and in public sentiment suggests otherwise.
Victorious illusions and growing reality
Putin has built his political career on the image of a “decisive leader” – from the second Chechen campaign to the annexation of Crimea and the Syrian operation. Even in the conditions of the failure of the blitzkrieg against Ukraine in 2022, he continues to demonstrate confidence. Large-scale parades, meetings with leaders of friendly countries and statements about the “stability” of Russia – all this is intended to maintain the illusion of victory.
However, in reality, according to analysts, Russia is in a deep military and economic impasse.
Two Key Dilemmas of War
Russia today faces two strategic problems.
Military dilemma #1: Lack of progress on the front. Despite the offensive initiative, Russian troops are unable to achieve significant results. An example is Pokrovsk: for several months now, the Russian army has been unsuccessfully trying to take the city, suffering huge losses. According to Western analysts, about 790,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since the start of the full-scale invasion, of which more than 100,000 have been killed in 2024 alone . In addition, about 48,000 are missing .
If the rate of losses continues, Russia could cross the one million military casualties mark by the end of 2025 without achieving any significant strategic goals. Moreover, the territories under Russian control are mostly active combat zones and do not bring any tangible benefits to the country.
Military dilemma #2: Ukraine’s resilience. After failing to quickly defeat Ukraine in 2022, Putin has turned to attacks on civilian infrastructure, hoping to break the will of Ukrainians. But this tactic has backfired: Ukrainian society has rallied, strengthening its resistance.
Despite economic and numerical limitations, Ukraine has demonstrated high morale and technological adaptability, particularly in the areas of drones and cyber operations.
Economic dead end
Putin's obsession with "not losing" is also hitting the Russian economy. Military spending has stopped stimulating growth – while Russia's GDP grew by 5% in 2023, by mid-2025 the dynamics had slowed to almost zero. Inflation is approaching 10% , the labor market is overheated, and household incomes are stagnating.
The fall in oil and gas prices, caused by lower demand from China and possible trade restrictions from the United States, could deal a heavy blow to the Russian budget, which is 40% dependent on energy exports.
Social consequences
Although there is no widespread discontent yet, Russians are increasingly asking themselves: what is this war for ? Is it for rising prices, falling living standards, international isolation, and unclear territories under constant shelling?
As Foreign Policy emphasizes, the most dangerous thing for any leader is a war started on his own initiative and lost by him . Especially if in the end there is no “great goal”, no economic sense, no political justification.
